Viendo archivo del lunes, 6 enero 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Jan 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 6 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Jan 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
06/0019Z from Region 1944 (S09E11). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08
Jan, 09 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 421 km/s at
05/2123Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 42 pfu at 06/1600Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 06/1005Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 618 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (08 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (09 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07
Jan), are likely to cross threshold on day two (08 Jan) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (09 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Jan a 09 Jan
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 99% | 70% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Jan 204 Previsto 07 Jan-09 Jan 200/195/195 Media de 90 Días 06 Jan 149
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Jan 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 015/018-012/018-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Jan a 09 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 60% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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