Viendo archivo del miércoles, 8 enero 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Jan 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 8 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Jan 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M3 event observed at
08/0347Z from Region 1947 (N11W98). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10
Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
398 km/s at 07/2141Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/2017Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2352Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 972 pfu at
08/2030Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 07/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 792 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (09 Jan), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (10 Jan) and unsettled to active levels
on day three (11 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days
one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Jan a 11 Jan
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Protón | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Jan 195 Previsto 09 Jan-11 Jan 195/195/195 Media de 90 Días 08 Jan 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Jan 007/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Jan 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 041/073-025/041-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Jan a 11 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 50% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 90% | 85% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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