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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emitido: 2014 Jan 13 1221 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Llamarada solar

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protones solares

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Jan 2014	149	008
14 Jan 2014	147	008
15 Jan 2014	144	006

Bulletin

There are currently eight numbered sunspot groups on the solar disc, and the most complex one is the Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA AR 1944). The flaring activity, during last 24 hours, was at the B-class level. The last C-class flare reported was C3.9 flare which peaked at 02:06 UT, on January 12. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA AR 1944) which continues to decay, but remains classified as a beta- gamma sunspot group. We expect C-class flares and possibly but not very probably M-class flare. Catania sunspot group 98 (NOAA AR 1944) is at the moment close to the west solar limb, therefore, we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a fast solar wind (800 km/s), associated with the extended (in latitude and in longitude) coronal hole in the northern hemisphere which first reached the central meridian on January 8. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 7 nT. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 095, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	095 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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