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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emitido: 2014 Jan 22 1330 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Llamarada solar

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protones solares

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Jan 2014	150	010
23 Jan 2014	153	004
24 Jan 2014	153	003

Bulletin

Twelve sunspot groups were reported by Catania today. None of them was particularly active during the past 36 hours: only a couple of weak C-class flares occurred (below C3.0). We expect flaring activity on the C-level, in particular in two active regions with beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field (Catania numbers 14 and 17, NOAA ARs 1957 and 1959 respectively). A partial halo CME was detected by SOHO/LASCO on January 21. The CME first appeared in the LASCO C2 field of view at 21:17 UT. It had the angular width of around 230 degrees and the speed around 900 km/s. Inspection of STEREO/EUVI B data indicates that the CME was associated with a far side eruption (as seen from the Earth) starting around 21:06 UT, with the source region situated around S15W150. This CME will therefore not arrive at the Earth and have no geomagnetic consequences. The Earth is currently inside the fast (around 550 km/s) solar wind stream originating in the low-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude in the interaction region between the fast stream and the preceding slow wind reached 13 nT, but the IMF Bz component was fluctuating between positive and negative values. As a consequence, geomagnetic conditions did not go above the unsettled level (K = 3) as measured by Dourbes, IZMIRAN, and NOAA. Currently the IMF magnitude is around 6 nT. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K < 4), with isolated intervals of active conditions (K = 4) possible but not very likely.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 113, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	141
10cm solar flux	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	090 - Based on 06 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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