Viendo archivo del sábado, 1 febrero 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Feb 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 32 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Feb 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
01/0723Z from Region 1967 (S13E16). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (02 Feb) and likely
to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and
three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 377 km/s at
01/1923Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/1954Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/1927Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (04
Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Feb a 04 Feb
| Clase M | 75% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Feb 177 Previsto 02 Feb-04 Feb 180/180/185 Media de 90 Días 01 Feb 152
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Jan 002/000 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Feb 002/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 013/005-010/018-006/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Feb a 04 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 25% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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