Viendo archivo del martes, 18 febrero 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Feb 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 49 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Feb 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
18/0133Z from Region 1976 (S15W56). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb,
21 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
441 km/s at 18/1019Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/2031Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/2057Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Feb, 20 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (21 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Feb a 21 Feb
| Clase M | 45% | 35% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Feb 151 Previsto 19 Feb-21 Feb 140/135/135 Media de 90 Días 18 Feb 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Feb 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Feb 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 006/005-006/005-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Feb a 21 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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