Viendo archivo del viernes, 21 febrero 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Feb 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 52 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Feb 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
21/1117Z from Region 1976 (S13W94). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb,
24 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
571 km/s at 21/0633Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/2102Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0818Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1915 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (24 Feb). Protons greater than 10 MeV have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (22 Feb, 23 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Feb a 24 Feb
| Clase M | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Feb 157 Previsto 22 Feb-24 Feb 155/165/170 Media de 90 Días 21 Feb 155
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Feb 027/040 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Feb 014/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 015/023-016/020-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Feb a 24 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 50% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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