Viendo archivo del sábado, 1 marzo 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Mar 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 60 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Mar 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/1333Z from Region 1982 (S11W86). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03
Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at
01/0634Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 88 pfu at 28/2230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 236 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04
Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (02 Mar), have
a chance of crossing threshold on day two (03 Mar) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (04 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Mar a 04 Mar
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 99% | 50% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Mar 165 Previsto 02 Mar-04 Mar 160/165/165 Media de 90 Días 01 Mar 159
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Feb 010/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Mar 007/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Mar a 04 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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