Viendo archivo del jueves, 13 marzo 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emitido: 2014 Mar 13 1307 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Llamarada solar

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protones solares

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Mar 2014	148	017
14 Mar 2014	143	008
15 Mar 2014	143	007

Bulletin

There were three C flares and one M flare on the Sun during the past 24 hours. The M9.3 flare was produced by NOAA AR 11996 and peaked at 22:34 UT on March 12. This flare has probably triggered the filament eruption that took place near S20W45 around 00:24 UT on March 13, as detected in AIA imagery. A CME was observed on LASCO C2 images starting from 01:25 UT on March 13. This CME is probably related to the filament eruption. Based on the LASCO C2 imagery, this CME will probably not be geoeffective. CACTUS previously detected a CME on LASCO C2 images starting at 14:36 on March 12. Based on COR2 A and B images, this CME was associated to a backside event produced by NOAA AR 11986 and hence will not be geoeffective. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is very high (above 90%) and for M flares around 60%, mainly from NOAA AR 11996. There is a slight chance (25%) for an X flare. In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed as observed by ACE gradually rose from about 250 to 370 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 5 and 11 nT. A sector boundary crossing took place when the IMF phi angle changed from negative to positive around 22h UT on March 12. In the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions reached active conditions (K Dourbes equal to 4; NOAA Kp between 4 and 5) from 0h to 6h UT on March 13, in response to the elevated solar wind speed and IMF magnitude, combined with a negative Bz. Quiet conditions (K Dourbes < 4; NOAA Kp < 4) were measured for the rest of the period. Quiet to active geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 5) are expected on March 13. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are forecasted for March 14 and 15.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 084, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Mar 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	094 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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