Viendo archivo del viernes, 14 marzo 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Mar 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 73 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Mar 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
14/1021Z from Region 1996 (N16, L=051) which rotated off the east limb
yesterday. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 626 km/s at
14/0523Z but was generally around 450 km/s. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
14/1056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/1258Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Mar a 17 Mar
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Mar 144 Previsto 15 Mar-17 Mar 145/140/140 Media de 90 Días 14 Mar 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Mar 007/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Mar 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 006/008-008/005-008/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Mar a 17 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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