Viendo archivo del miércoles, 19 marzo 2014

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Mar 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 78 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Mar 2014

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 19/0734Z from Region 2010 (S15E39). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 365 km/s at 19/1819Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/2234Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Mar a 22 Mar
Clase M40%30%30%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 Mar 149
  Previsto   20 Mar-22 Mar 150/145/145
  Media de 90 Días        19 Mar 157

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Mar  010/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Mar  004/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Mar a 22 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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