Viendo archivo del sábado, 22 marzo 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Mar 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 81 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Mar 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/0702Z from Region 2011 (S07W77). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar,
25 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 550 km/s at
22/1736Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/1521Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1222Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (23 Mar, 25
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day two (24 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Mar a 25 Mar
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Mar 155 Previsto 23 Mar-25 Mar 160/155/155 Media de 90 Días 22 Mar 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Mar 010/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Mar 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 007/008-009/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Mar a 25 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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