Viendo archivo del miércoles, 11 junio 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Jun 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 162 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Jun 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
11/0906Z from Region 2087 (S18E56). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13
Jun, 14 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
643 km/s at 11/1108Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/2157Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/0050Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13
Jun, 14 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Jun a 14 Jun
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Jun 168 Previsto 12 Jun-14 Jun 175/170/165 Media de 90 Días 11 Jun 138
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Jun 007/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Jun 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 007/008-012/018-016/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Jun a 14 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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