Viendo archivo del lunes, 16 junio 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Jun 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 167 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Jun 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0001Z from Region 2087 (S18W08). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (17 Jun) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 396 km/s at
16/1913Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/0526Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/1215Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold throughout the period (17-19 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Jun a 19 Jun
| Clase M | 55% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Jun 117 Previsto 17 Jun-19 Jun 115/115/110 Media de 90 Días 16 Jun 139
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Jun 009/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Jun 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 008/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Jun a 19 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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