Viendo archivo del martes, 26 agosto 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Aug 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 238 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Aug 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
26/0241Z from Region 2146 (N07W58). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug,
29 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 297 km/s at
26/2053Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/1935Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/0936Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 171 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (28 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (29
Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Aug a 29 Aug
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 Aug 128 Previsto 27 Aug-29 Aug 130/130/125 Media de 90 Días 26 Aug 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 Aug 004/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 Aug 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 017/020-011/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Aug a 29 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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