Viendo archivo del martes, 23 septiembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Sep 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 266 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Sep 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/1536Z from Region 2172 (S11E36). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep,
26 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
482 km/s at 23/1309Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/1357Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/1030Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Sep, 25 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Sep a 26 Sep
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Sep 138 Previsto 24 Sep-26 Sep 140/145/150 Media de 90 Días 23 Sep 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Sep 009/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Sep 009/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 008/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Sep a 26 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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