Viendo archivo del viernes, 31 octubre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Oct 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 304 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Oct 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
31/0101Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (01 Nov) and likely to
be low on days two and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 531 km/s at
31/1928Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 31/1229Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/1824Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1475 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Nov,
02 Nov, 03 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Nov a 03 Nov
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Oct 121 Previsto 01 Nov-03 Nov 120/115/110 Media de 90 Días 31 Oct 141
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Oct 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Oct 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 009/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Nov a 03 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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