Viendo archivo del viernes, 7 noviembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Nov 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 311 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Nov 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
07/1726Z from Region 2205 (N15E32). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09
Nov, 10 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
523 km/s at 07/2003Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 07/1851Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/1956Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Nov,
09 Nov, 10 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Nov a 10 Nov
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Nov 146 Previsto 08 Nov-10 Nov 148/148/148 Media de 90 Días 07 Nov 141
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Nov 008/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Nov 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 007/008-008/008-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Nov a 10 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 30% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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