Viendo archivo del domingo, 14 diciembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Dec 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 348 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Dec 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/1933Z from Region 2242 (S20E38). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
512 km/s at 13/2232Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2025Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/1125Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
14/1020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 816 pfu. Afr data unavailable due to non-receipt.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (15 Dec, 17
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (16 Dec). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Dec,
16 Dec, 17 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Dec a 17 Dec
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Dec 166 Previsto 15 Dec-17 Dec 170/170/170 Media de 90 Días 14 Dec 152
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Dec NA/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Dec 009/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 008/008-009/012-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Dec a 17 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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