Viendo archivo del sábado, 3 enero 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jan 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 3 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Jan 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/0947Z from Region 2253 (S07E09). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan,
06 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 548 km/s at 03/0706Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/0000Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 02/2355Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Jan), unsettled to active
levels on day two (05 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(06 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Jan a 06 Jan
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Jan 149 Previsto 04 Jan-06 Jan 155/155/150 Media de 90 Días 03 Jan 156
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Jan 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Jan 015/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 011/015-012/015-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Jan a 06 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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