Viendo archivo del martes, 17 febrero 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Feb 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 48 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Feb 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Feb,
19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 458 km/s at 17/1847Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 17/0142Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 17/0440Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 105
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Feb) and quiet levels on
days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Feb a 20 Feb
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Feb 119 Previsto 18 Feb-20 Feb 120/120/115 Media de 90 Días 17 Feb 150
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Feb 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Feb 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Feb a 20 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 30/03/2026 | X1.4 |
| Último evento clase M | 28/03/2026 | M1.3 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 25/03/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (3%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
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