Viendo archivo del miércoles, 18 marzo 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Mar 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 77 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Mar 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/2334Z from Region 2297 (S16W64). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (19 Mar, 20 Mar) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(21 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 727 km/s at 18/2056Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 17/2302Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at 17/2236Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3129
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar). Protons
greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (19
Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (20 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Mar a 21 Mar
| Clase M | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 30% | 20% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Mar 115 Previsto 19 Mar-21 Mar 115/110/110 Media de 90 Días 18 Mar 137
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Mar 046/118 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Mar 036/053 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 018/025-008/018-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Mar a 21 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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