Viendo archivo del domingo, 22 marzo 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Mar 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 81 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Mar 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar,
24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 757 km/s at 22/0834Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 22/0734Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/0642Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12337
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (24 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (25 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Mar a 25 Mar
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Mar 122 Previsto 23 Mar-25 Mar 125/125/125 Media de 90 Días 22 Mar 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Mar 012/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Mar 016/024 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 016/020-014/012-015/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Mar a 25 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 55% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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