Viendo archivo del miércoles, 17 junio 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jun 18 0520 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 168 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Jun 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
17/0001Z from Region 2371 (N11E66). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun,
20 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
623 km/s at 17/0346Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/2133Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/1320Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2803 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18-20 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Jun a 20 Jun
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Jun 136 Previsto 18 Jun-20 Jun 135/130/130 Media de 90 Días 17 Jun 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jun 014/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Jun 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Jun a 20 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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