Viendo archivo del viernes, 3 julio 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jul 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 184 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Jul 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/1251Z from Region 2378 (S17E56). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at
03/0251Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5791 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jul), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Jul a 06 Jul
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Jul 112 Previsto 04 Jul-06 Jul 112/112/115 Media de 90 Días 03 Jul 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Jul 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Jul 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 007/008-020/030-016/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Jul a 06 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 55% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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