Viendo archivo del viernes, 7 agosto 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Aug 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 219 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Aug 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
07/1941Z from Region 2396 (S17E02). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (08 Aug) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(09 Aug, 10 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 597 km/s at 06/2313Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/1818Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/1253Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1851
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (09 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (10 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (10 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Aug a 10 Aug
| Clase M | 40% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Aug 122 Previsto 08 Aug-10 Aug 125/125/125 Media de 90 Días 07 Aug 115
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Aug 012/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 013/015-015/019-018/022
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Aug a 10 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 55% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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