Viendo archivo del jueves, 13 agosto 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Aug 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 225 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Aug 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (14 Aug) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (15
Aug, 16 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
435 km/s at 12/2132Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1020Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 749 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Aug, 15 Aug) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (16 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Aug a 16 Aug
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Aug 095 Previsto 14 Aug-16 Aug 095/095/090 Media de 90 Días 13 Aug 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Aug 012/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Aug 011/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 006/005-006/005-018/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Aug a 16 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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