Viendo archivo del viernes, 21 agosto 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Aug 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 233 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Aug 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/0948Z from Region 2403 (S14E23). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
558 km/s at 21/0106Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/2151Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/2118Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9116 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Aug), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (23 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (24 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Aug a 24 Aug
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Aug 110 Previsto 22 Aug-24 Aug 110/110/115 Media de 90 Días 21 Aug 110
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Aug 011/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Aug 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 007/008-021/028-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Aug a 24 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 45% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 25% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 70% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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