Viendo archivo del domingo, 23 agosto 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Aug 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 235 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Aug 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
22/2124Z from Region 2403 (S15W04). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 611 km/s at 23/1403Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 23/0740Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 23/0731Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 207
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Aug) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (25 Aug, 26 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Aug a 26 Aug
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Aug 133 Previsto 24 Aug-26 Aug 120/120/125 Media de 90 Días 23 Aug 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Aug 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Aug 025/032 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 020/028-014/020-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Aug a 26 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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