Viendo archivo del miércoles, 7 octubre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Oct 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 280 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Oct 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 845 km/s at 07/2033Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 07/1425Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 07/1339Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 639
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (08 Oct), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (09 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (10 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Oct a 10 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Oct 081 Previsto 08 Oct-10 Oct 080/085/085 Media de 90 Días 07 Oct 103
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Oct 011/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Oct 041/079 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 030/048-014/018-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Oct a 10 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 50% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 80% | 60% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 30/03/2026 | X1.5 |
| Último evento clase M | 04/04/2026 | M1.3 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/04/2026 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (3%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
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