Viendo archivo del martes, 17 noviembre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Nov 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 321 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Nov 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/1554Z from Region 2454 (N05E12). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Nov,
19 Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
387 km/s at 16/2335Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1138Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/2012Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 467 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Nov), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (19 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (20 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Nov a 20 Nov
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Nov 107 Previsto 18 Nov-20 Nov 108/108/106 Media de 90 Días 17 Nov 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Nov 009/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Nov 008/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 022/030-014/020-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Nov a 20 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 45% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 55% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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