Viendo archivo del miércoles, 2 diciembre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Dec 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 336 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Dec 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
02/0446Z from Region 2458 (N11W66). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (03 Dec, 04 Dec)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (05 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
507 km/s at 01/2123Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01/2248Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/1355Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1420 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (03 Dec, 05 Dec) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (04 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Dec a 05 Dec
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Dec 095 Previsto 03 Dec-05 Dec 100/100/095 Media de 90 Días 02 Dec 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Dec 011/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Dec 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 006/005-008/008-007/006
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Dec a 05 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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