Viendo archivo del sábado, 12 diciembre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Dec 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 346 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Dec 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
12/1346Z from Region 2470 (N13E76). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec,
15 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
720 km/s at 12/0103Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/2215Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0152Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6196 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Dec, 14 Dec)
and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Dec a 15 Dec
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Dec 117 Previsto 13 Dec-15 Dec 120/125/125 Media de 90 Días 12 Dec 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Dec 014/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Dec 010/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 009/010-007/008-013/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Dec a 15 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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