Viendo archivo del miércoles, 20 enero 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Jan 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 20 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jan 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/0734Z from Region 2484 (N08W83). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jan,
22 Jan, 23 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 424 km/s at 20/0326Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 20/0351Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 20/1527Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Jan, 23
Jan) and quiet to active levels on day two (22 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jan a 23 Jan
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jan 100 Previsto 21 Jan-23 Jan 095/100/100 Media de 90 Días 20 Jan 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jan 007/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jan 019/026 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 007/010-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jan a 23 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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