Viendo archivo del lunes, 8 febrero 2016

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 39 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Feb 2016

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/0529Z from Region 2492 (N14W19). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 08/0757Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 08/0600Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/0349Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (09 Feb, 11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Feb a 11 Feb
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 Feb 115
  Previsto   09 Feb-11 Feb 115/115/115
  Media de 90 Días        08 Feb 108

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 07 Feb  006/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  016/018
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  012/018-008/008-009/010

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Feb a 11 Feb
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%15%25%
Tormenta Menor10%05%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%20%15%
Tormenta Menor30%30%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa40%20%35%

All times in UTC

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