Viendo archivo del viernes, 12 febrero 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Feb 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 43 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Feb 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/1047Z from Region 2497 (N13W19). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb,
15 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
375 km/s at 12/0249Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 12/1938Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 12/0752Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Feb) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb). Protons have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13
Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Feb a 15 Feb
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Feb 112 Previsto 13 Feb-15 Feb 109/107/107 Media de 90 Días 12 Feb 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Feb 012/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 010/010-011/012-019/027
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Feb a 15 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 50% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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