Viendo archivo del martes, 12 abril 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Apr 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 103 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Apr 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/0751Z from Region 2529 (N09E14). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Apr,
14 Apr, 15 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 12/2040Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 12/1953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
12/2000Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (13 Apr, 14
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Apr a 15 Apr
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Apr 111 Previsto 13 Apr-15 Apr 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 12 Apr 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Apr 005/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Apr 013/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 018/030-018/030-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Apr a 15 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 70% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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