Viendo archivo del sábado, 16 abril 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Apr 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 107 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Apr 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 16/0625Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 15/2124Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
16/1806Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2086 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Apr, 18 Apr)
and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Apr a 19 Apr
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Apr 113 Previsto 17 Apr-19 Apr 112/110/110 Media de 90 Días 16 Apr 099
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Apr 009/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Apr 009/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 007/010-006/008-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Apr a 19 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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