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Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 May 08 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 129 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 May 2016

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 720 km/s at 08/1943Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 08/1024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 08/0128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 326 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 May, 10 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 May a 11 May
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 May 084
  Previsto   09 May-11 May 085/085/090
  Media de 90 Días        08 May 094

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 07 May  009/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 08 May  039/065
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  022/032-018/025-014/015

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 May a 11 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%35%
Tormenta Menor30%30%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo05%05%15%
Tormenta Menor20%20%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa65%65%45%

All times in UTC

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