Viendo archivo del martes, 10 mayo 2016

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 May 10 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 131 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 May 2016

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May, 13 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 723 km/s at 10/0100Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/1303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/2150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 54929 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 May) and quiet levels on day three (13 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 May a 13 May
Clase M05%05%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       10 May 089
  Previsto   11 May-13 May 090/092/098
  Media de 90 Días        10 May 093

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 09 May  021/030
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 10 May  017/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  012/014-009/010-006/006

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 May a 13 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%25%15%
Tormenta Menor15%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor25%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa40%30%20%

All times in UTC

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