Viendo archivo del domingo, 15 mayo 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 May 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 136 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 May 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/0409Z from Region 2543 (S05W80). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 May,
17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 15/1714Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 14/2149Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
14/2132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1152 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 May). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (16
May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (17 May) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (18 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 May a 18 May
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 60% | 30% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 May 108 Previsto 16 May-18 May 105/100/100 Media de 90 Días 15 May 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 May 010/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 May 011/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 017/023-011/012-009/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 May a 18 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 55% | 25% |
All times in UTC
< < Ir a la visión general diaria
Últimas noticias
lunes, 19 enero 2026
CME impact! S4 solar radiation storm
domingo, 18 enero 2026
X1.9 solar flare with earth-directed CME
miércoles, 31 diciembre 2025
Happy New Year! Celebrate with an M7.1 solar flare!
Últimos mensajes del foro
Do the high-resolution sunspot counts point to more complex sunspots? 17AR 14342/14344 16AR 4345 36Ar 14349 14Filaments and prominences 453
Más temasApoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Solar activity or if there is a chance to see the aurora, but with more traffic comes higher costs to keep the servers online. If you like SpaceWeatherLive and want to support the project you can choose a subscription for an ad-free site or consider a donation. With your help we can keep SpaceWeatherLive online!
Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 18/01/2026 | X1.9 |
| Último evento clase M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 22/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| enero 2026 | 119.6 -4.4 |
| Last 30 days | 122.3 +11.2 |