Viendo archivo del miércoles, 15 junio 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Jun 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 167 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jun 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 772 km/s at 15/0410Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 14/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 14/2145Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 215 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jun 087 Previsto 16 Jun-18 Jun 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 15 Jun 091
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jun 015/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jun 013/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 014/018-011/012-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 35% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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