Viendo archivo del miércoles, 13 julio 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Jul 13 2120 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 195 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jul 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jul,
15 Jul, 16 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 658 km/s at 12/2155Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 12/2326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/2357Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4515 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jul a 16 Jul
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Jul 097 Previsto 14 Jul-16 Jul 094/094/092 Media de 90 Días 13 Jul 088
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jul 018/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Jul 009/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 014/ NA-007/ NA-007/ NA
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jul a 16 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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