Viendo archivo del jueves, 20 octubre 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Oct 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 294 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Oct 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 465 km/s at 19/2324Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/1758Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
20/0712Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 38252 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (22 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (23
Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Oct a 23 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Oct 075 Previsto 21 Oct-23 Oct 075/075/075 Media de 90 Días 20 Oct 086
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Oct 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 005/005-016/022-018/024
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Oct a 23 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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