Viendo archivo del jueves, 22 diciembre 2016

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Dec 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 357 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Dec 2016

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 716 km/s at 22/0528Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 21/2200Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/2203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8093 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Dec, 24 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Dec a 25 Dec
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 Dec 075
  Previsto   23 Dec-25 Dec 073/073/072
  Media de 90 Días        22 Dec 081

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 Dec  018/030
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 Dec  019/026
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  011/012-010/012-008/008

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Dec a 25 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%25%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%20%
Tormenta Menor25%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa35%35%20%

All times in UTC

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