Viendo archivo del jueves, 29 diciembre 2016
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2016 Dec 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 364 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Dec 2016IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (30 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on days two and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 437 km/s at 29/0449Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
29/1036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/1315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 15202 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Dec), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (31 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (01 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Dec a 01 Jan
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Dec 073 Previsto 30 Dec-01 Jan 072/075/075 Media de 90 Días 29 Dec 080
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Dec 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 009/010-018/024-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Dec a 01 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 55% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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