Viendo archivo del jueves, 12 enero 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Jan 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 12 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Jan 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/1618Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jan,
14 Jan, 15 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 11/2135Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 12/1835Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/1737Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7626 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Jan, 14 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (15 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Jan a 15 Jan
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Jan 076 Previsto 13 Jan-15 Jan 080/082/085 Media de 90 Días 12 Jan 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Jan 007/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Jan 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 007/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Jan a 15 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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