Viendo archivo del martes, 21 marzo 2017

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Mar 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 80 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Mar 2017

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 701 km/s at 21/1933Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 21/0723Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 21/0607Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 244 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (22 Mar, 23 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Mar a 24 Mar
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Mar 071
  Previsto   22 Mar-24 Mar 071/071/071
  Media de 90 Días        21 Mar 076

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Mar  002/002
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Mar  022/032
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  017/022-014/018-012/014

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Mar a 24 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%40%35%
Tormenta Menor10%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%10%10%
Tormenta Menor20%20%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa30%60%50%

All times in UTC

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