Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 abril 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Apr 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 106 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Apr 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Apr,
18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 381 km/s at 16/1150Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
16/0540Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/0531Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 909 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (18 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (19 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Apr a 19 Apr
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Apr 075 Previsto 17 Apr-19 Apr 083/088/090 Media de 90 Días 16 Apr 078
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Apr 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Apr 007/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 014/020-013/015-013/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Apr a 19 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 55% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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