Viendo archivo del viernes, 8 septiembre 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Sep 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 251 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Sep 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
08/0749Z from Region 2673 (S09W70). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (09 Sep, 10 Sep)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (11 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1110 km/s at 08/0431Z. Total IMF
reached 34 nT at 07/2258Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-32 nT at 07/2257Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 844 pfu at 08/0035Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1941 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (09 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (09 Sep), are likely to cross
threshold on day two (10 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day three (11 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Sep a 11 Sep
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 50% |
| Clase X | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| Protón | 99% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Sep 117 Previsto 09 Sep-11 Sep 115/105/090 Media de 90 Días 08 Sep 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Sep 023/042 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Sep 053/098 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 022/030-007/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Sep a 11 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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